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Debating Debtflation: the Case of Lebanon and Greece
By Ma'an Barazy
alwikala.com - The Greek crisis has brought sovereign debt to the forefront, capturing markets' attention. We think another dimension of the sovereign issue, the inflation risks inherent in high levels of public debt for economies that can print their own currency, is being overlooked by the markets. High levels of public debt in many advanced economies raise the spectre of inflation, in our view: if high debt is deemed undesirable, but the political will for higher taxes and lower spending although present might not materialized in the coming budget as political consensus remains fragile over such tax issues, then ‘soft default' through inflation becomes a possibility - read more

 

 

 

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the Alwikala.Net Online's Global Country Risk & Industry Analysis Service provides unparalleled coverage of country markets across Asia, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East & Africa, featuring intra-daily news analysis; political and economic risk assessment; strategic views on currency and debt developments; systematic macroeconomic forecasts over a 10-year horizon; country-comparative risk ratings, and rigorous benchmarking of the business environment. This can be viewed alongside our analysis and forecasts for 24 industry sectors (you select which countries and sectors) for each country market, delivering an extraordinary level of breadth and depth.

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Special Coverage

A New Currency Profile for the GCC- Union Delayed but Rerisking after Dubai will mean The End of 'Quasi-Sovereigns?'

By Ma'an Barazy
GCC currencies have long-standing links to the U.S. dollar. Kuwait exited its dollar peg in 2007, pegging instead to a basket in which the dollar dominates but the other countries maintain the pegs. While granting some macroeconomic stability, these pegs limit monetary autonomy as it implies that the real interest rates in the region are linked to U.S. rates. GCC countries have planned to create a monetary union loosely modelled on that of the EMU,
READ all of our wires on the Dubai debt debacle  clickhere

Year-end Newsletter – Closing Out 2009

 

STOCK MARKET ACTIVITY DOWN 39 % TO $1BN IN 2009.(ALWIKALA.COM)

11-JAN-10

Figures released by the Beirut stock Exchange indicate that total trading volume reached 102.6 million shares in 2009, a decrease of 3 % from the previous year, while aggregate to $1bn ,down 39%from a turnover of $1.7 in 2008. Market capitalization increased by 34 % to $12.8bn year-on-year, of which 66.7% was in banking stocks, 30.7% in Solidere stocks, 2,06%in industrial stocks, 0.28% in funds, and 0.27% in trading stocks. More…

BYBLOS BANK SYRIA LISTS ON DAMASCUS BOURSE.(ALWIKALA.COM)

11-JAN-10

Byblos Bank Syria (BBS), the Syrian affiliate of the Byblos Bank Group, listed all of its shares on December 17th on the Damascus S ecurities Exchange (DSE). BBS became the 7th bank and the 12th institution to be listed on the DSE. Other banks listed on the DSE include the Syrian affiliates of BLOM bank , Bank Audi and Banque BEMO, as well as the Arab Bank Syria, the International Bank for Trade & Finance and the Syria International Islamic Bank.The DSE officially started trading last March, with trading taking place two days a week . More…

BANK OF BEIRUT PREFERRED SHARES LISTED ON BEIRUT STOCK EXCHANGE.(ALWIKALA.COM)

11-JAN-10

The Beirut stock exchange (BSE) approved the listing, trading and pricing of Bank of Beirut’s 2,400,000 Preferred  Shares Series E , which contributed to increase the capital of the bank . The nominal value of each of the new preferred shares is $0.8. As a result , the Bank’s capital is distributed between 44,849,375 Common Shares , 2,920,000  Preferred Shares Series C, 4,000,000 Preferred Shares Series D, 2,400,000 Preferred Shares Series E and 3,000,000 Preferred shares Series F. Bank of Beirut sal posted net profits of $50.9m in the first 9 months of 2009, up 4 % from the same period of the previous year. More…

STANDARD & POOR’S UPGRADES THREE BANKS.(ALWIKALA.COM)

11-JAN-10

Standard & Poors raised its long-term counterparty credit ratings on BLOM Bank , Bank Med and Bank Audi to ‘B’ from ‘B-‘, AND revised the ratings outlook to ‘positive’ from ‘stable’ . It also raised its short-term counterparty credit rating on Bank Med and Bank Audi to ‘B’ from ‘C’ . Standard & Poor’s does not rate Byblos Bank sal. The agency attributed the upgrades to its earlier upgrade of Lebanon’s long-and short-term sovereign credit ratings. More…

 

OTHER TOP STORIES

Deloitte report on SWFs

Deloitte published a report on sovereign wealth funds and their investments in real estate market. "Sovereign Wealth Funds: Real Estate Partners in Growth?" also presents figures on SWF recent investments in real estate and financial institutions.

 

From the WEB

Reuters Sovereign wealth seeks bigger slice of buyout pie 
Sydney Morning Herald 
Future Fund consortium leads the property charge 
Financial Times 
EQT and Singapore fund seal €2.3bn Springer buy 
Bloomberg 
Future Fund May Join Canada Funds' Transurban Bid 
American Banking News 
Kuwait Sovereign Wealth Fund Rakes in $1.1 Billion in Profit After 
Reuters 
Markets need progress in Copenhagen, says Norway's SWF 
WSJ 
Asian Sovereign Funds Learn Tough Lessons 
FinanceAsia 
Asian sovereign funds are biggest SWF spenders in 2009 
AltAssets 
CIC to take €800m stake in €11.2bn Apax buy-out fund 
Malaysian Insider 
Khazanah to maintain Penang heritage sites, not state 
 
» Moody's: Dubai World restructuring unlikely to threaten sovereign credit of UAE and Abu Dhabi
» Alwaleed says ‘mature’ banks made wrong assumptions on Dubai
» Dubai World updates lenders on recent developments
» Gulf Bank announces participation in unfunded syndicated facilities for Dubai World
» Arqaam Capital sees economic recovery approaching Kuwait
» Dubai World updates lenders
» Moody's downgrades Dubai GRI ratings
» Bahrain-based GFH lowered To 'BB+/B' on weakened stand-alone credit profile

Special Coverage

Dubai's Debt Analysis : Where do we go from here ?
Is it a lack of vision? or simply a system that went wrong because of too much vision? Dubai World, a state-ownedholding company struggling with $59 billion of debt and other liabilities, said Nov. 25 it would seek a standstill agreement with creditors and an extension of loan maturities until at least May 30, 2010. dubaipixThe news led to a slump in financial markets around the world and raised prospects of rising loan losses for U.A.E. and foreign banks.The benchmark three-month Emirates interbank offered rate was at 1.919 percent on Nov. 25, the last working day before a religious holiday, according to Bloomberg data. The U.A.E. has 24 local banks and 28 units of foreign lenders operating in the country, including those of Citigroup Inc.,. More
 

READ all of our wires on the Dubai debt debacle  clickhere

 


 

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Alwikala team are native to the regions about which they write and report. Trained as economists, they hail from top universities, and are stationed in site. In addition to the dailies, we report on research published over weekly and monthly reports, country-specific overviews, as well as a variety of country sector reports.
 

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The market daily or weekly reports summarize the most important economic, financial, corporate and political developments during the week in five to six pages. Ideal for staying informed about a country's politics and economy without following events on a day-to-day basis, they are also helpful for those who travel extensively and do not have time for reading daily reports.


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The research reports present an overall picture of the economy with an emphasis on macroeconomic analysis. Highly analytical, the reports also have large statistical sections covering major macroeconomic indicators.


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The sector reports cover sectors of special interest to foreign investors and of great importance to the local economy such as telecoms, energy, construction, tourism, transportation. Ad hoc reports cover hot topics of special interest to subscribers and are highly time-sensitive.

 

 

 

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